Buhari's needless fights.

Buhari’s needless fights. 

President Buhari’s peace-meeting with leaders from the Niger-Delta last week isn’t first of his reversals. A worrying trend. 

It’s known Nigeria’s chaos is by design, predictable, and reform will be a fight. Some of us had thought a war-tested, retired-army officer, Muhammadu Buhari, before embarking on needed reforms would hunch over specifics laid on his magnolia Aso-Villa desk, with lawyer vice-president opposite him, and key advisers, identify quick wins, preempt reaction of vested-interests, and weigh-up possible unintended consequences against objective, as an army-general would before ordering a military offensive.

Instead, it's been gaffes and climb downs, and the president diminished with each episode.

PMS price modulation

Take for instance pegging premium motor spirit at N86.50 at start of this year. A time Buhari had claimed to stop oil subsidies, was unconvinced about Naira devaluation, and US dollar restrictions made FOREX situation precarious. Goal was to discourage private oil-marketers, convinced they were racketeering, and make Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation sole importer of refined petroleum to distribute throughout Nigeria. 

The unnecessary hardship this action foisted upon Nigerians was predictable, several months of what presidency termed ‘systemic queues’ at filling stations when promised daily barges of NNPC products weren’t arriving. Rather quickly reconsider the failed policy, the presidency instead picked a fight with oil-marketers, accusing them of diverting products supposedly bought from NNPC depots. Filling stations that procured petrol abroad and sold above N86.50/litre for profit margin, were sealed, in some cases, their petrol distributed to queuing customers who cheered. 

Nigerians were told trackers will be fitted to oil trucks to curb diversion, and were admonished not to ‘panic buy’ black market rate of up to N300/litre. 

The farce ended with presidency reversing itself, admitting NNPC couldn't meet national demand and monies tied down for importation was affecting state governments’ payment of workers’ salaries. An increased PMS pump-price of N145/litre was agreed with private oil-marketers. Government’s intervention was to end corruption and reduce PMS pump-price. It caused an over sixty-five percent increase, making life harder for the poor. And unclear if Nigeria’s downstream oil sector is now fully deregulated. The Junior minister for petroleum says he ‘wouldn’t be dragged into nomenclatures.’ 

NNPC again murmurs N145/litre PMS pump-price ‘unsustainable’, claiming subsidies yet being paid. Usual December petrol scarcity brews at a time, now 5-6 months down the road, when price was to fall as promised. 

No, thanks, IMF

At this year’s International Monetary Fund spring summit in Washington DC, replying to possibility of an IMF loan to Nigeria (the organisation expressed worry for Nigeria’s economic downturn earlier this year and how it’d affect the poor), Nigeria’s Finance Minister quipped, ‘IMF could be a doctor, but for Nigeria, our message is we’re not sick. And if we are, we have our own local medicine.’ 

The same Minister has now worked on an external borrowing plan request by the presidency to the National Assembly for $29.9billion infrastructure investments to combat a recession driving poor and middle-class Nigerians to the borders as was with the 80s brain-drain. The loan request was slapped down for lacking thoroughness, and the Senate ascribed ‘incompetence’ to it; avoidable if were an IMF plan. 

Foreign diplomacy

President Buhari has also made statements that, in age of globalised societies and markets, political and economical costs to the Nigerian populace is yet to be determined. 

President Rouhani of Iran reached out to Nigeria’s government regards massacre of Kaduan Muslims who follow their strain of Islam - Shia. Buhari rejected Iran’s government call for compensation to family of victims, later admitting at a media-chat to be ‘infuriated’ by actions of the ‘excited teenagers, virtually, hitting chests of generals.’ Buhari left the matter to Kaduna state governor and the army to investigate their alleged crime. Predictably, a whitewashed report followed, in which Shias had no representation, and the group was indicted. 

Again last month, almost a year later after whitewash report, the Shias were attacked in Kaduna, this time spreading to other northern Nigeria States.  

As guest of Qatari Emir, president Buhari, caught Nigeria’s traditional allies, the United States and others, unaware, declaring ‘…we will stand side by side with you, until our brothers and sisters in Palestine achieve their desired objectives.’ Like he’s noticeably stopped tarring all Nigerians as ‘corrupt’ on his numerous foreign visits, perhaps Buhari will soon be prevailed upon to clarify this statement.

Niger-Delta peace-meeting 

Leaders from Niger-Delta, before their photo-op with Buhari and vice-president at Aso-Villa, tendered sixteen-points demand from the government in exchange for peace. It basically restates the Amnesty deal previous government had with the region. Except this time, without militants publicly downing arms. 

For precedent, at the US Institute for Peace, Buhari ironically declared war with infamous ninety-seven percent gaffe two-months into his presidency, stating ‘political reality’  a region that didn’t vote for him en-masse can’t be treated like those that did. Ahistorical, he appointed into government, retired-colonel Hameed Ali, who’d sat on panel that sentenced Ken Saro-Wiwa, founder of Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People, to death without appeal. Next, he cancelled amnesty pipeline surveillance contracts awarded to ex-militants from the Niger-Delta by previous administrations, claiming to review it. And in January, an order for arrest of warlord, Government Ekpemupolo A.K.A Tompolo, was issued. 

‘Avengers’ responded, blowing up pipelines in Warri. Ever since, Nigeria’s Armed Forces, whether by collusion or sheer incapacity, haven’t curtailed the militants’ activities. Again, Buhari had put locals, and Nigerians in general, through needless pains.

Maritime University the president’s Transport Minister had opposed is back on the table as part of 16-demands. Pipeline surveillance contracts will be re-awarded to repented militants from the region, but this time, like ‘juicy’ NIMASA, to loyalists to Nigeria’s ruling party. A fight for another day when power at centre changes hands in 2019 or four years after. If a southerner then emerges president, some new form of organised chaos is predictable in the northern region.

On reforms

Should president Buhari continue uncoordinated, it won’t be long before he and his team develop bunker-mentality from criticisms. A recommended reading for the president is ‘Reforming the unreformable’ by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She managed, against vested interests, to make tangible reforms in Nigeria. She introduced now accepted wise Oil Price-based Fiscal Rule for budgeting; Sovereign Wealth Fund to invest for future generations; Excess Crude Account to boost foreign-exchange reserves; and began publishing monthly revenues for all tiers of government, getting Nigeria its first international credit rating, a BB minus, making the country highest foreign direct investment destination in Africa. 

After outlining effective steps towards reforms, and sharing her mistakes, ‘…political agenda for elections [derails] reforms,’ Okonjo-Iweala warns in her book. 

It’s president Buhari’s eighteenth-month in office. In another 18-months electioneering starts. Reforms may already be too late in this cycle. And needless fights he’s picked thus far — ongoing with Judiciary, Legislature and Bureau de Change— shows Buhari is, worryingly, either a hostage president, or worse, one without a well-thought-out plan.